Maybank Predicts 2026 as Pivotal Year for EV FDIs in Malaysia, Boosting Proton's Market Lead

Maybank analysts have identified 2026 as a pivotal year for electric vehicle (EV)-related foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Malaysia, driven by the expiry of completely built-up (CBU) incentives.

This policy shift is pushing foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) towards completely knocked-down (CKD) localization to align with Malaysia's emphasis on national marques.

Proton's Surge in EV Market Share

Proton's EV market share has grown impressively from 18% in 2025 to 28% year-to-date in 2026.

The launch of the eMAS 5 in October 2025 propelled Proton to become the top-selling EV brand amid strong government alignment.

Record-Breaking 2025 Auto Sales in Malaysia

Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) hit a record 821,000 units in 2025, surpassing Maybank's forecast of 790,000 and overtaking Indonesia as ASEAN's largest auto market.

Strong Q4 2025 EV sales were fueled by consumers frontloading purchases before CBU tax incentives expired.

Post-incentive, no significant CBU EV price hikes have occurred, thanks to 1-2 quarters of pre-imported inventory buffering the transition to CKD and semi-knocked-down (SKD) assembly.

BYD Delays and Opportunities for Local Players

BYD's CKD plans face potential delays pending approval from the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI).

Any slowdown in foreign OEM FDIs, including from BYD, positions Proton as the primary beneficiary due to its competitive edge in the eMAS segment.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and oil price volatility could further delay open market value adjustments and new EV incentives planned for mid-2026.

Looking ahead, Malaysia anticipates a gradual transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with Proton's robust pipeline ensuring sustained growth.

Overall, Maybank views Proton as the strongest proxy for Malaysia's EV evolution amid evolving challenges.