BMI Slashes Asia's 2035 Grid Electricity Demand Forecast Amid Renewables Boom and Energy Security Push

BMI has revised its forecast for Asia's net electricity consumption in 2035 downward by 2.6% to 22,331 TWh.

This adjustment reflects the accelerating rise of distributed generation, particularly rooftop solar, which is eroding traditional grid demand across the region.

Rising Renewables in Response to Energy Crises

Non-hydropower renewables outlook has been upgraded, with solar capacity projected to reach 3,740.5 GW, up 3.9%, and wind capacity to 1,629.8 GW, up 11.6%.

The surge is fueled by heightened energy security priorities following the US-Iran war and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting faster renewables adoption.

Historical reliance on imported LNG has been challenged by supply shortfalls, such as damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, slashing exports by 20.2% to 83 mtpa in 2026.

Policy Shifts Driving Decentralized Power

In Thailand, the late-2025 'Quick Big Win' energy package promotes community solar and tax incentives for rooftop installations.

Indonesia has allocated a 485 MW rooftop solar quota for 2026 alongside a 100 GW mini-grid initiative for remote areas.

Vietnam raised rooftop solar export caps to 50% of capacity in January 2026, boosting prosumer economics despite robust GDP growth.

Declining Fossil Fuels and Future Resilience

Gas generation forecasts were cut 8% to 2,203.5 TWh, while coal dropped 4.3% to 8,657.4 TWh, displaced by cheaper renewables.

The Philippines' March 2026 energy emergency accelerated 1.3 GW of solar deployment after spot prices surged 58%.

These trends position renewables at the core of Asia's energy security, reducing vulnerability to global supply shocks in the years ahead.

Looking forward, distributed generation will reshape Asia's power landscape, enhancing resilience and sustainability amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.