Related Reading: Pantera’s Vision: Bitcoin Fund Forecasts $740,000 Price Tag By April 2028 Consorti cautions, "If it continues to follow the current contraction in M2, a 20-25% correction could materialize, potentially pulling bitcoin down to roughly $73,000—not a price prediction, but a stark reminder of Bitcoin’s tether to the global money supply.” However, he also acknowledged that Bitcoin might defy this trend, as it has in the past, particularly “from 2022-2023 due to the FTX collapse and interest in the space evaporating as a result.” He suggests that structural ETF inflows and corporate buying pressure could help Bitcoin resist the current M2 deflation.
Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, points out via X that “a Bitcoin bid has overshadowed tightening liquidity over the past month.” While acknowledging that Bitcoin appears “overstretched vs.global M2” and that his liquidity model suggested caution, especially with leverage, Coutts highlights potential policy shifts that could favor risk assets.
Joe Consorti, an analyst at Theya, observed that since September 2023, “Bitcoin has closely tracked global M2 with a ~70-day lag.” Over the past two months, global M2 has declined from $108.3 trillion to $104.7 trillion, driven by factors such as a strengthening US dollar—devaluing foreign currency-denominated M2 when converted into dollars—and economic slowdowns dampening lending and deposit creation.
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