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Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk

SCMP LogoSCMP4d ago

Why this China analyst says full decoupling is unlikely, and what’s missed in reform talk - SCMP

Quick Summary:

Founder of Gavekal Dragonomics says efforts to dislodge China from global supply chains are unlikely to succeed and discussions of reform’ from outside the country often miss vital context.

If today I’m exporting 100 solar panels from China to the US and then tomorrow I’m exporting zero solar panels from China to the US, but 100 from Vietnam to the US, that would show up as a reduction in China’s export share to the US, but in reality the trade was just diverted through a third country.

If Trump is elected, there’s no question that the security side – the defence department, state department – will become more hawkish than under Biden, and will be inclined to be antagonistic towards China.

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Article Details

Author / Journalist: Kandy Wong

Category: Business

Markets:

Topics:

Source Website Secure: Yes (HTTPS)

News Sentiment: Negative

Fact Checked: Legitimate

Article Type: News Report

Published On: 2024-07-12 @ 06:00:18 (4 days ago)

News Timezone: GMT +8:00

News Source URL: scmp.com

Language: English

Article Length: 4498 words

Reading Time: 25 minutes read

Sentences: 261 lines

Sentence Length: 18 words per sentence (average)

Platforms: Desktop Web, Mobile Web, iOS App, Android App

Copyright Owner: © SCMP

News ID: 21643632

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Official Website: scmp.com

Update Frequency: 15 posts per day

Year Established: 1903

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News Last Updated: 4 hours ago

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Publisher ID: #42

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