US job market may be near tipping point, unemployment may rise: Research

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US job market may be near tipping point, unemployment may rise: Research - Business Standard

Quick Summary:

Fed officials appear to have reached the same conclusion, with reductions to the U.S.central bank's benchmark policy rate expected to begin at the upcoming Sept.

Still, the new research adds further detail to several ongoing Fed debates by combining in a single economic model two key relationships; one between the unemployment rate and rate of inflation, known as the Phillips Curve, and one between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate, known as the Beveridge Curve.

After years of persistently low inflation and falling unemployment in the decade before the pandemic, Fed officials had felt they could potentially run the economy "hot," to the benefit of workers, with little chance of rising prices.