State-run think tank KDI slashes GDP forecast, urges BOK to cut rates

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State-run think tank KDI slashes GDP forecast, urges BOK to cut rates - Korea Economic Daily

Quick Summary:

The Korea Development Institute (KDI), South Korea’s state-run think tank, has slashed its forecasts for the country’s economic growth for this year and 2025, citing growing uncertainty surrounding the new Trump administration’s trade policy.

Eight major IBs, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, predicted Korea's 2024 growth rate at 2.3% on average as of the end of October, 0.2 percentage point lower than their earlier forecasts.2025 GROWTH COULD FALL BELOW 2% IF TRUMP MOVES FASTERThe KDI said it assumes a possible US tariff hike by the new Trump administration will come in 2026.

The KDI expects Korea’s current account surplus to expand to $93 billion next year from $87.5 billion this year, largely due to lower import prices in line with falling international oil prices.‘FURTHER BOK RATE CUTS NEEDED’Korea’s consumer price inflation will slow to 1.6% next year from an estimated 2.3% gain this year, according to the KDI.