Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of Digital Assets Research, said, “We expect ETH to continue its structural decline.”“Layer 2 blockchains were meant to improve ETH scalability, but we estimate that Base (a key layer 2) has removed USD 50bn from ETH’s market cap.” Kendrick cited lower ETH fees, a “higher net issuance,” and layer 2 blockchains “taking Ethereum’s GDP” as an unexpected result of the Dencun upgrade. Adding to their observation of Base absorbing Ethereum’s fee revenue, Kendrick said, “In particular, Base — a layer 2 that was developed to address the problem of scalability on Ethereum— is passing all the profit (fee revenue minus data recording fees) it extracts to Coinbase, its corporate owner.” Related: Long-term Ethereum accumulation could unwind if ETH price falls below $1.9K — AnalystVanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, the firm's Senior Analyst on Digital Assets, concur with the dim ETH price view held by many analysts.
Ethereum price is more than 52% down from its December 2024 high at $4,107 and data from TradingView shows ETH (ETH) down 42% since the start of 2025. Despite being one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and holding the dominant spot as the leader in Web3 and DeFi, many analysts believe that ETH’s price prospects remain grim in the short term. Crypto analyst and chartered market technician Askel Kibar warned traders against assuming that ETH price trades at a discount simply based on how far off it is from its average trading price. On X, Kibar explained that “bottom reversals take time” given that “ all that supply needs to be accumulated.” ETH/USD daily chart.
Then it turned out to a larger scale H&S bottom reversal.” Currently, ETH’s chart does not show any type of bottoming formation, leading Kibar to compare trading Ethereum to “catching a falling knife.” Standard Chartered chops 2025 ETH price call to $4,000Standard Chartered added to the dim outlook via a March 17 client letter, which revised down their end of 2025 ETH price estimate from $10,000 to $4,000, a drastic 60% reduction.
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