S&P Global Upgrades Grab Holdings to BB Rating on Strengthening Earnings Quality and Positive Outlook

S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Grab Holdings credit rating to BB from BB- , citing significant improvements in earnings quality.

The upgrade comes with a positive outlook, reflecting expectations of sustained dominance in Southeast Asia's mobility and delivery sectors over the next 12-18 months.

Grab's Market Leadership Fuels Financial Recovery

Grab, the Singapore-based superapp, maintains a commanding position as the top operator in on-demand services across key Southeast Asian markets.

Analysts forecast Grab's revenue to surge 20% to $4.1 billion in 2026, driven by steady growth in food delivery and mobility segments.

EBITDA Margins Set to Expand Significantly

EBITDA margins are projected to reach 17-18% in 2026 and 2027, up from 11.2% in 2024 and around 17.3% in 2025.

This improvement stems from higher operating leverage, disciplined growth spending, and low capital needs in core mobility and delivery businesses.

The company anticipates generating positive free cash flows, bolstering its unrestricted cash balance of about $6.6 billion by end-2025.

Strategic Moves and Shareholder Returns

Grab plans up to $600 million annually for shareholder distributions and acquisitions in 2026-2027, including completing a $500 million share buyback program this year.

Recent acquisition of a 50.1% stake in U.S.-based Stash Financial marks its first major deal since the 2018 Uber assets takeover, signaling measured expansion.

Historically, Grab achieved its first full-year net profit in 2025 amid 20% revenue growth, transitioning from heavy losses to profitability.

The positive outlook underscores conservative leverage management, with debt-to-EBITDA expected to decline toward 3 times by 2027.

While financial services like digital banking show promise toward breakeven by end-2026, risks from competition and rapid loan growth remain.

This upgrade enhances investor confidence, potentially lowering borrowing costs and supporting further Southeast Asian expansion.