So the market’s hand seems to be working.” 82% Chance Bitcoin Will Be Bullish Astronomer’s bullish thesis leans on historical data, particularly the cyclical nature of the Bitcoin price.“The data analysis is fairly simple here: each time BTC had a green September, it was followed by no less than three green months after, i.e., a green October, November, and December.
But to add significance, by the binary nature of bullish/bearish, there is also exclusivity to the data: if September is not green, 6 out of 8 times, Q4 has not been green each month.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Here’s Why He refines his thesis further, “So, by including the exclusivity, a more general and easier to interpret claim, using more data points is that: ‘The direction of September has determined the general direction of Q4 and if September is green and not red, a bullish (not bearish) Q4 has followed 9 out of 11 times.
The crypto analyst opens his analysis with an emphasis on the unexpected positive performance of Bitcoin in September.“September is about to close and to the general public’s surprise, it’s looking like it’s going to be green (by a long shot), with the chance of setting the greenest September in 2024, supporting our breakout thesis we have been on for a while now,” he writes.
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