But this cycle is seeing additional variables that make M2 a less reliable standalone indicator, such as the US dollar being historically strong, creating a drag on global M2 denominated in USD, and more accurate measures of money supply and liquidity coming onto the scene.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed? Data Shows 87.5% Chance The Worst Is Over Although macro conditions are exerting familiar pressure, the market’s reaction to the SBR announcement has been perplexing.
According to Consorti, "Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin forms these patterns at cycle turning points… The last time we saw this exact price structure was during the tail end of Bitcoin’s summer 2024 consolidation, two months before it surged from $57,000 to $108,000.” A notable trend amid these price fluctuations is Bitcoin’s rising dominance, even during periods of market contraction.
Global M2 Correlation And Bitcoin Market Inefficiency In his latest research note, analyst Joe Consorti underscores that "Bitcoin’s directional correlation with global M2 has tightened again,” indicating that price remains heavily swayed by money supply trends.
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