The victory by Donald Trump could significantly influence fiscal policies, thereby impacting the Fed’s longer-term rate path.“The Federal Reserve will be mindful of how its actions and commentary could influence financial markets that may already be experiencing quite volatile conditions,” James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, remarks.
ING analysts suggest, “Even after September’s 50bp rate cut, monetary policy is in restrictive territory, and the Fed has scope to keep cutting rates back to a more neutral level to give the economy a little more breathing space to continue growing strongly.” The current target range for the Fed funds rate is 4.75% to 5%, well above the estimated “neutral” level of 3% to 3.5%.
However, critical sectors like shelter and services continue to see elevated prices.Shelter prices are up 4.9% year-over-year, and services excluding energy rose by 4.7%.“The core PCE inflation rate—a key Fed measure—has stabilized at an annualized 2.3% over both three- and six-month averages but continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target,” Spinozzi highlights.
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