First, Hougan highlighted the market capitalizations of Bitcoin and Ethereum and stated that he expects investors to allocate to their respective exchange-traded products (ETPs) in proportion to their market caps. Related Reading: Spot Bitcoin ETFs See 7 Consecutive Days Of Outflows, Here’s What Happened Last Time Hougan noted that US investors have, so far, invested $56 billion in Spot Bitcoin ETPs and expects that figure to reach $100 billion or more by the end of 2025, when these funds should have matured further and be approved on platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch. Using this as a reference, Bitwise’s CIO stated that the Spot Ethereum ETFs would need to attract $35 billion in assets to stay on par with the Bitcoin ETFs, which he believes could take about 18 months to happen.
Hougan also highlighted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs will already have $10 billion in assets upon launch, thanks to the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which will convert to an ETF on launch day. Therefore, Hougan noted that the Spot Ethereum ETFs are now left with $25 billion in inflows to reach parity with the amount of inflows the Spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to reach by 2025 year-end.
Based on this, Hougan lowered the estimate of net inflows for the Spot Ethereum ETFs from $25 billion to $18 billion, excluding Grayscale’s assets. Hougan eventually lowered the estimated net inflows to $15 billion by factoring in the fact that a significant portion of the flows into the US Spot Bitcoin ETFs are related to carry trades.
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