Related: Rising $219B stablecoin supply signals mid-bull cycle, not market topBitcoin halving and four-year cycle still crucial for price action: Nexo analystDespite fears over a disrupted Bitcoin bull market, the four-year cycle, along with the Bitcoin halving event, remain crucial for Bitcoin’s price action, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.“Bitcoin’s four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has declined to a record low of 8%, posing questions about whether its traditional four-year cycle remains valid,” Kalchev told Cointelegraph, adding:“Although strong institutional adoption over the past year has served as a significant tailwind for Bitcoin, its halving events are still expected to exert long-term influence.”The 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced the Bitcoin network’s block reward to 3.125 BTC per block.
Source: Cointelegraph“Despite this, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle remains an important factor, historically shaping price movements,” said the analysts, adding:“Corrections within bull cycles are normal, and past trends suggest that this may be a shakeout rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.”However, the launch of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which temporarily surpassed $125 billion in cumulative holdings, along with the growing institutional crypto investments make it “clear that the conventional cycle ceases to exist,” the analysts added.
Despite investor sentiment dropping into “Extreme Fear” multiple times, historic chart patterns suggest that this may just be a price shakeout — a sudden price drop caused by multiple investors exiting their positions, preceded by a sudden price recovery.“Several key technical indicators have turned bearish, leading to speculation that the bull cycle may be ending prematurely,” Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph.BTC/USD, 1-year chart.
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Author / Journalist: Cointelegraph by Zoltan Vardai
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