Bitcoin bulls who still think the cycle peak has yet to come as retail investors haven’t piled in yet might be using an outdated playbook, according to a crypto executive.“The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because onchain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration,” CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 19 X post. Ju said that those tracking retail movements using only onchain metrics will not have seen the full picture. “Retail is likely entering through ETFs — the paper Bitcoin layer — which doesn’t show up onchain,” Ju said. “This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly to exchange deposit wallets,” he added, noting that 80% of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows come from retail investors — a trend that Binance analysts already once observed in October last year. Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have totaled around $35.88 billion.
Other common signals used to track the level of retail interest in the crypto market include Google search trends for “crypto” and related keywords and the popularity of crypto applications in major app stores worldwide.
Ju was responding to counter-arguments over his earlier prediction on X that the “Bitcoin bull cycle is over” on March 17. “I’ve been calling for a bull market over the past two years, even when indicators were borderline.
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Author / Journalist: Cointelegraph by Ciaran Lyons
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