Now, as Trump’s support for European security is very much in doubt, Europe faces a test of whether it will have the political will to protect its future—which involves, in the immediate term, preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine.“If this is not the jolt that Europe needed to get its act together, I don’t know what could be one.Absent U.S.leadership, NATO could be paralyzed,” said Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a think tank that advises the French government.The leaders of the U.K., France, Germany and Poland should urgently meet to coordinate a joint stand, he said, especially to avoid the pitfalls of the first Trump presidency, when individual European nations sought to cut bilateral deals with Washington.“The result needs to reaffirm the commitment of the United Kingdom and European allies to the values of freedom and democracy,” said British lawmaker Alex Sobel, chair of the U.K.parliament’s all-party group on Ukraine.“We all need to work together to ensure there is no creeping isolationism and protectionism.” When asked about dealing with Trump, senior officials in allied capitals said they first need to see what kind of administration he assembles and who fills key national-security and foreign-policy positions.
Takashi Kawakami, the foreign-policy adviser to Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, made headlines this month by saying in an interview with the Daily Cyzo publication that a Trump victory would finally allow Japan to reclaim sovereignty curtailed since the end of World War II, returning control over much of Japanese airspace and reclaiming land occupied by U.S.military bases.“We can take the initiative and become a truly independent country,” he said, and instead of following the U.S.lead, “find a skillful way to manage the power balance with China, Russia and North Korea.” In Japan and in South Korea alike, the new sense of uncertainty is likely to reopen debates about indigenous military capabilities, including potential nuclear weapons.
Trump’s current orbit includes people such as former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an old-school Republican hawk on Russia and China, JD Vance, his vice-presidential pick, who favors cutting commitments to Europe and focusing on Asia, as well as outright isolationists and backers of a purely transactional approach.“Everything will depend on who gets what job,” a senior European official said.“The bench is thin.”While Trump has promised to negotiate a peace in Ukraine within 24 hours, he hasn’t indicated how.
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