Morgan Stanley’s recent view that the global chip industry faces an imminent winter and companies like SK Hynix Inc.will suffer is exaggerated and a projected oversupply of HBM, or AI chips, is unlikely in the near future, analysts said.In its Sept.15 research note titled “Winter Looms,” the US brokerage firm, with a warning of an AI bubble, presented a bearish view on South Korean memory chipmakers, citing weak demand for general DRAM and an oversupply of AI-specific high-bandwidth memory (HBM).
Nomura Securities said that considering potential production disruptions at some chipmakers, an actual supply glut is “unlikely to occur".Shinyoung Securities Co.said it expects next year's global HBM demand and supply to reach 220 billion gigabytes (GB) and 190 billion GB, respectively, leading to a continued short supply.“Weak demand for general DRAM will be offset by strong HBM demand,” said Shinyoung analyst Park Sang-wook.
OVERSTATEDSeveral analysts said Morgan Stanley’s views are overstated.Samsung Securities Co.analyst Hwang Min-seong said SK Hynix's HBM production capacity will increase from 130,000 units a month at the end of this year to 150,000 units by the end of 2025, and the chipmaker will only produce pre-contracted volumes".
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